https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/ New Marketing Research Journal en daily 1 Tue, 22 Dec 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Tue, 22 Dec 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30645.html Aging of Iran’s population represents a structural transformation that has significantly altered demand patterns across multiple markets, giving rise to two contrasting business trajectories: declining industries and emerging high-growth sectors. This study aimed to explore these two trajectories while identifying the structural and governance-related obstacles that impeded the development of the latter. Adopting a qualitative approach with an inductive strategy and an exploratory-field design, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in aging studies, health economics, social marketing, and public policy. Participants were selected through purposive sampling and data collection continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. Following Braun and Clarke’s (2006) framework, thematic analysis, was applied to the interview data. The findings were organized into 4 main themes: (1) declining demand in youth-oriented industries, most notably in child-related sectors and high-energy entertainment; (2) rising demand for health-oriented services with unanimous consensus on in-home medical care and elderly mental health services; (3) innovative products and services, particularly long-term care insurance and remote monitoring technologies; and (4) structural governance challenges, including the absence of an integrated care system, a shortage of specialized workforce, and legal barriers. By offering a comprehensive classification of both declining and growing businesses within Iran’s aging context and precisely pinpointing governance barriers as the primary bottleneck to market development, this study provided a foundational reference for businesses and investors seeking to address the needs of this expanding demographic in Iranian society.IntroductionPopulation aging, a direct outcome of the demographic transition, ranks among the most profound demographic shifts of the 21st century. As life expectancy rises and fertility rates continue to decline, the share of older adults within the total population grows substantially. According to the World Health Organization (2025), nearly 22% of the global population will be aged 60 years or over by 2050, with the most rapid increase occurring among those aged 80 and above. Frost & Sullivan (2023) further project that the global elderly population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050, with emerging economies experiencing the steepest growth between 2030 and 2050. In Iran, this transition is unfolding at an accelerated tempo. Official statistics indicate that by 1430 (Iranian calendar), the elderly will constitute 32.1% of the total population (Mahmodi, 2016). Data from the Statistical Center of Iran show that the proportion of older adults rose from 5% in 1976 to over 10% in 2016 and projections estimate that between 2056 and 2066, more than 32%—approximately 35 million people—will be aged 65 and above. This demographic realignment brings both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, population aging significantly raises public spending on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care services (Bloom et al., 2010). On the other, the so-called "silver economy"—encompassing economic activities tailored to older consumers—is poised to become one of the largest global market forces (Kohlbacher & Herstatt, 2008). Recent research by Wen et al. (2025) has shown that population aging exerts a notable negative impact on inclusive growth, largely through 3 channels: exacerbating employment difficulties for low-skilled groups, stifling technological innovation, and reducing opportunities for educational skill acquisition. Nonetheless, growing evidence suggests that wider adoption of artificial intelligence could help offset these adverse effects. Against this backdrop, the present study addressed 3 main research questions: (1) Which businesses are thriving and which are declining in the context of Iran's aging population? (2) What new products and services are emerging from these structural shifts? (3) What governance and structural barriers impede the development and institutionalization of these businesses? By offering a systematic categorization of aging-affected industries and identifying the key obstacles to their growth, this study sought to provide actionable insights for developing Iran's silver economy. Materials & MethodsThe research population comprised managers, policymakers from governmental institutions, such as the Ministry of Health and the Welfare Organization, and specialists in sociology, marketing, economics, and insurance. This approach was selected due to the interdisciplinary nature of the topic (Creswell & Poth, 2018). The study adopted 3 key perspectives: the economic and business perspective, including entrepreneurs, business development managers, and economists; the health and social welfare perspective, including aging specialists, insurance managers, and health researchers; and the policy and governance perspective, including policymakers, governance researchers, and government managers. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in aging, health economics, social marketing, and public policy. Purposive and snowball sampling were used until theoretical saturation was achieved. The main interview questions addressed which businesses, goods, or services would decline as Iran's population ages, which currently active businesses would be completely eliminated, what types of businesses, goods, or services should be created or expanded for an aging population, and what governance, infrastructure, and legal challenges exist for developing new aging-related businesses. Interviews averaged 45 to 60 minutes each. Data analysis was conducted by using Braun and Clarke's (2006) thematic analysis method, following its 6 phases: familiarization with the data, coding, generating themes, reviewing themes, defining themes, and writing the final report. For validity, member checks, triangulation, and peer review were employed. For reliability, two interviews were randomly selected and coded by an independent researcher, yielding a Kappa coefficient of 87%, which indicated good agreement. Research FindingsThe analysis of 18 interviews generated 36 open codes, which were organized into 4 main themes.Theme 1: Declining Demand in Youth-Oriented Industries (8 codes). The most frequent codes included "declining sales in infant and child-related industries" (frequency: 13), "decreased popularity and profitability of high-energy entertainment services" (12), and "sharp decline in demand for education at all levels" (10). This theme indicated a structural, continuous, and irreversible reduction in demand for industries whose primary audience consisted of youth, adolescents, children, and families of childbearing age. Unlike cyclical recessions, this decline stemmed from fundamental changes in Iran's population structure and required businesses to plan for gradual downsizing or complete transformation of their business models.Theme 2: Growing Demand in Health-Oriented and Comfort Services (8 codes). The most frequent codes included "significant increase in demand for medical, nursing, and rehabilitation services, especially at home" (frequency: 16), "growing demand for psychological services and counseling to address loneliness and depression" (15), and "strong demand for safe, barrier-free, and accessible housing" (12). This theme demonstrated a structural surge in demand for products and services that addressed the physical, psychological, and social needs of the elderly, reflecting a shift from hospital-based treatments toward home care and chronic disease management.Theme 3: Innovative Products and Services (9 codes). Key findings included the design and provision of long-term care insurance as the financial infrastructure (14), the development of remote health monitoring technologies and smart homes (10), and the establishment of private pension funds and asset management services (8). These innovations represented responses to emerging demand patterns and aimed to bridge the gap between "need" and "effective demand".Theme 4: Structural Governance Challenges (11 codes). The most frequent challenges were the complete lack of an integrated care system and severe institutional fragmentation (16), a critical shortage of specialized, trained, and motivated human resources (15), and the complexity, obsolescence, and lack of transparency in regulations and licensing processes (13). This theme encompassed the institutional, legal, economic, and cultural bottlenecks that determined the development of the silver economy. Discussion of Results & ConclusionThe findings demonstrated that Iran's changing population structure simultaneously drove the decline of youth-oriented industries and emergence of a silver economy, thereby transforming the main business actors in this space. The results aligned with previous international research. In the declining business sector, the findings corresponded with those of Jones (2023) on reduced demand for education and child-related industries, Gordon (2016) on the decline of industries dependent on rapid growth, and Aaronson et al. (2014) on reduced youth labor force participation in service industries. In growing businesses, the findings aligned with those of Zdravkova Yaneva (2023) on the prevalence of individual businesses and small companies in daily products and healthcare and Backman & Karlsson (2013) on the role of e-commerce platforms and government support in empowering small businesses. The emphasis on in-home medical services and elderly mental health was consistent with the findings of Chatterji et al. (2015). In innovative products and services, the findings on long-term care insurance, remote monitoring, and smart homes aligned with those of Wen et al. (2025) on the role of artificial intelligence in mitigating the negative effects of aging and Moon et al. (2020) on small businesses achieving the highest growth rates during aging periods. The key contribution of this research lay in the governance challenges as experts identified the lack of an integrated care system, specialized workforce shortages, and legal barriers as the most significant obstacles—findings that were consistent with those of Thurairaj et al. (2026) on administrative fragmentation and financial limitations in developing countries and Heinonen et al. (2025) on the governance requirements for silver economy development.Main Results:Declining businesses included child-related industries, education, high-energy entertainment, youth-dependent manufacturing, and high-traffic in-person services.Growing businesses included in-home medical services, elderly mental health services, elderly-friendly housing, functional foods, anti-aging supplements, specialized hygiene products, and cognitive empowerment centers.Innovative products included long-term care insurance, remote monitoring, smart homes, integrated health applications, private pension funds, integrated elderly data systems, and service rating systems.Governance barriers included the lack of an integrated care system, specialized workforce shortages, complex regulations, absence of comprehensive legislation, insurance gaps, institutional fragmentation, cognitive gaps among policymakers, and elder poverty.At the macro level, the most critical actions included:Enacting comprehensive elderly protection legislation to address institutional fragmentationEstablishing long-term care insurance with private sector participation and government support through targeted subsidiesDesigning an integrated elderly data system as a national information infrastructureDeveloping service quality certification and rating systems to build consumer trust and market orderBusiness Development Opportunities: key entrepreneurial opportunities included:Integrated platforms connecting trained caregivers with families requiring hourly services for millions of isolated elderly individualsDesigning and manufacturing assistive technologies, such as smart walkers, fall detection watches, and smart beds using local technology at competitive prices, approximately one-third of foreign equivalentsDesigning financial products specifically for housewives, addressing the large percentage of elderly women lacking social security coverage—an issue that represented both a social necessity and a significant economic opportunityStudy Limitations and Future Research Directions: The lack of a comprehensive and integrated system for aging-related products and services in Iran means that no fixed standards currently exist. Limited access to detailed demographic data classified by age groups (60–65, 65–75, 75+) was also a constraint. The qualitative nature of the study and the sample size limited statistical generalizability. Future research should examine ecosystem collaboration among key actors, analyze the quantitative impact of aging on specific businesses using actual demographic data, conduct comparative studies with regional countries, such as Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, investigate successful long-term care insurance models, and study the specific needs of different elderly age groups to design appropriate products and services accordingly. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30454.html This study aimed to design a model for managing marketing rumors on social media, using a case study of the Iranian food industry (Kalleh and Mihan companies). A sequential exploratory mixed method was employed. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews with 12 managers, customers, and media professionals (selected via snowball sampling until saturation) were analyzed through coding. Analysis yielded 183 codes, 168 concepts, 65 sub-categories, and 10 main themes: rapid management with evidence, trust-building through empathy, media monitoring, creative content, education, regulations, direct interaction, crisis strategies, innovative tools, and continuous improvement. An initial model emphasizing transparency and speed was developed into a three-phase framework (pre-active, active, post-active) to systematize monitoring, response, and organizational learning. In the quantitative phase, a quasi-experimental design measured model effectiveness. The population comprised Tehran food industry customers (N=1,234,563), with a sample of 768 participants (384 each in experimental and control groups). A 12-item questionnaire assessed responses to the rumor "carcinogens in low-fat dairy products." The experimental group received model-based training. Independent t-tests showed significant differences (p<0.05) with positive effects (mean differences 0.38–0.60) favoring the experimental group across all components. Training based on the proposed model significantly increased consumer resistance, reduced concern, and improved attitudes toward rumors, proving the model's efficacy in managing food industry marketing rumors. This integrated framework provides a systematic approach for organizations to proactively prepare for, respond to, and learn from rumor crises, ultimately enhancing brand resilience in the digital age. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30604.html This study aimed to explain the relationship between gamification and customer engagement in online businesses and to propose a comprehensive conceptual model in this domain, using an exploratory mixed-methods approach. In the qualitative phase, key gamification elements were identified and extracted through thematic analysis of scholarly literature and semi-structured interviews with experts in related fields (12 participants). Data collection continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. The findings of this phase indicated that gamification in the context of online businesses encompasses a set of emerging and experience-oriented elements, including self-expression with an emphasis on identity representation and users’ psychological ownership; the creation of enjoyment as a positive emotional experience; goal-oriented and staged mission completion; problem-solving capability through cognitive challenges; simulation of real-life situations without risk; and the ability to integrate physical and cognitive aspects. In the quantitative phase, the statistical population consisted of users of online businesses who had experience using digital platforms. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire (387 respondents). To test the conceptual model and research hypotheses, structural equation modeling with a partial least squares approach was employed using SmartPLS software. The results of the structural model showed that the overall effect of gamification, as a second-order construct, on customer engagement was positive and significant, thereby confirming the main research hypothesis. Analysis of the sub-hypotheses revealed that different gamification elements varied in the magnitude of their effects on the three dimensions of engagement, and that experience-oriented and emerging elements played a significant role in strengthening sustained user interaction. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30641.html Abstract Modern technologies have transformed social networks from a simple communication tool into a dynamic platform for interaction, experience sharing, and shaping people's daily decisions. Given the risky nature of adventure sports tourism, it is of particular importance for tourism managers and planners to identify factors that reduce perceived risk and increase the willingness to visit these destinations. This study aims to investigate the impact of social media sharing on revisit intentions toward adventure sports tourism destinations, specifically focusing on the mediating role of perceived risk. This cross-sectional study was conducted among adventure sports tourists in the Dopolan region of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. The research sample consisted of 300 individuals selected through a convenience sampling method. Standard questionnaires were used to measure the research constructs. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) and the partial least squares (PLS) approach. The findings showed that perceived risk has a negative and significant effect on tourists' reivisit intention. Furthermore, The significance of participatory and non-participatory social media sharing exerts a positive and significant impact on adventure tourists' revisit intentions, both directly and through the mediation of perceived risk. Thus, emphasizing positive experiences shared on social media by other tourists (non-participatory) or by tourism destinations (participatory) can influence tourists' behavioral intentions by mitigating their perception of risk. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30709.html In today's competitive landscape across various industries, retaining existing customers is far less costly and more profitable than acquiring new ones, making timely prediction of customer churn a strategic necessity. This study aims to present and evaluate an innovative incremental learning framework for predicting customer churn and to conduct a systematic comparison between Logistic Regression and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. To this end, real-world historical data from an automobile dealership in Mashhad was utilized, with a sample size of 47,082 transactions belonging to 3,684 unique customers, while ensuring brand confidentiality. After merging and engineering demographic, transactional, and behavioral features, an incremental learning framework with an expanding window strategy was employed across five stages to simulate the operational environment and prevent temporal data leakage. The numerical findings indicate that the Logistic Regression model, on average across all stages, demonstrated numerically better performance compared to the MLP model on this specific dataset: an F1-score of 0.834 versus 0.568; and an ROC-AUC of 0.9547 versus 0.6286. This research demonstrates that in the dynamic environment of the automotive industry, applying a time-aware incremental learning framework alongside a simple and interpretable model such as Logistic Regression, provides a practical and effective solution for timely customer churn prediction. Furthermore, it offers a data-driven foundation for designing targeted customer retention interventions and optimizing the allocation of marketing and after-sales service resources for automotive industry managers. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30745.html In contemporary industrial environments, new product development in organizations with complex products and systems is characterized by high levels of technological uncertainty, systemic interdependencies, and stakeholder diversity. Under such conditions, customer value co-creation has emerged as an increasingly important approach for managing complexity and enhancing the effectiveness of product development. The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive conceptual model for customer value co-creation in the NPD process of organizations with complex products and systems. Adopting a qualitative approach, this research employs a meta-synthesis method based on Cochrane’s seven-step framework. Following a systematic search and screening process, 39 high-quality national and international scholarly articles were selected and analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings indicate that value co-creation is a multidimensional, systemic, and dynamic phenomenon that unfolds across six interrelated levels: (1)the context of system complexity and architecture, (2)theoretical logics of value creation, (3)process mechanisms of co-creation in product development, (4)actors and interaction mechanisms, (5)enabling organizational structures and capabilities, and (6)managerial and performance outcomes. Value co-creation in complex organizations is not a discrete activity but rather a networked and cyclical process realized through resource integration, mutual learning, and systemic coordination. Theoretically, the study advances value co-creation literature by introducing systemic and architectural dimensions largely overlooked in prior research. Practically, it offers managers of complex organizations an actionable framework for designing and governing customer participation in a purposeful, stage-based manner aligned with system complexity. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30781.html The present study was conducted with the aim of developing a referral marketing model: The Hidden Power of Customers in Brand Growth in digital businesses using Glaser’s approach. The study falls within the category of interpretive studies and adopts an inductive approach. In terms of purpose, it is an applied study, and in terms of methodology, it is qualitative in nature. The participants of the study consisted of managers and university professors. Sampling was carried out through purposive and theoretical sampling, and the data collection process continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. Ultimately, in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 experts.n this regard, the data obtained from the interviews were analyzed through the stages of open, selective, and theoretical coding, and the main concepts and categories gradually emerged from the data. Furthermore, MAXQDA software was used to manage, organize, and systematically analyze the qualitative data. To ensure the validity of the findings, content validity was employed. Accordingly, the extracted concepts, categories, and relationships were presented to a number of management experts and specialists, and after receiving their corrective comments, they were revised and finalized. In addition, intra-coder reliability and inter-coder reliability methods were used to assess the reliability of the data and ensure the consistency of the coding process.The findings of the study led to the development of a referral marketing model in digital businesses. Based on this model, causal conditions, correlating factors, intervening conditions, contingencies, consequences, and the contextual setting of referral marketing were identified. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_30848.html Depression, as one of the most prevalent mental disorders of the modern era, exerts profound effects on the online purchasing behavior of women. In employed women suffering from depression, this disorder is accompanied by negative emotions that influence their online consumption-related purchases. The present study aims to develop a model for managing the online purchasing behavior of this group of women, using an applied approach and a qualitative methodology based on Grounded Theory. Data were collected through semi structured interviews with 19 employed nurses working in hospitals in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, using purposive sampling until theoretical saturation was reached. Data analysis, conducted through open, axial, and selective coding, led to the identification of 141 initial codes and 42 concepts. The findings were categorized into five main components: causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, the core phenomenon, strategies, and consequences. Causal conditions emerged in three conceptual dimensions: individual factors, psychological factors, and economic factors. Intervening conditions consisted of two concepts: individual characteristics and psychological characteristics. Contextual conditions were reflected in four components: work life conflict, social and media pressure, the possibility of smart purchasing, and the possibility of controlled purchasing. The core phenomenon included impulse therapeutic buying and purchasing to compensate for emotional deficiencies. The consequences of these behaviors appeared in two categories of positive and negative emotional outcomes.